CURRENT RECORD 130-73-3
On the same night as UFC Belfast, Fight Night 100 takes place in Sao Paulo, Brazil. Headlining the landmark card is the rematch between Ryan Bader and Brazilian Antonio Rogerio Nogueira. When these pair first met six years ago Bader won by a decision, this time “Little Nog” Nogueira will be out for revenge in his home country. In the co main event, top bantamweight prospect Thomas Almeida will look to bounce back from his first career loss when he takes on Albert Morales. Elsewhere on the card, Thales Leites takes on Krzysztof Jotko, Manvel Gamburyan takes on Johnny Eduardo, Luis Henrique takes on Christian Colombo in a heavyweight clash and Claudia Gadelha takes on Cortney Casey in a women’s Strawweight clash. Another night of exciting fights and combined with the card in Belfast there will be UFC from five o’clock Saturday until six o’clock Sunday morning, so don’t make any plans for the day or night and tune in.
As always, I will now break down all the main card fights, give my predictions and of course put my own “Armchair Expert” title on the line.
RYAN BADER vs. ANTONIO ROGERIO NOGUEIRA
Ryan “Darth” Bader comes here off of an impressive knockout of Ilir Latifi, Bader; a formidable wrestler, showed in that fight how much is stand up has improved and how is overall game has grown. Antonio Nogueira is coming of a stoppage victory of his own versus Patrick Cummins at UFC 198, “Little Nog” is a legend of the sport but at 40 years of age, he isn’t going to make any serious adjustments since they last met. Bader dominated from the start to finish when they met six years ago and I expect this time to be no different, Bader holds the advantage on the feet and on the mat and he can finish the fight wherever it goes.
Bader by knockout.
THOMAS ALMEIDA vs. ALBERT MORALES
Thomas Almedia lost for the first time in his career last time out bringing his record to 21-1; still a remarkable accomplishment for a 25 year old. Almeida is so well rounded and diverse with his strikes that he has the ability to finish a fight anywhere. Albert Morales is an undefeated American with some slick boxing and great submission skills. Morales takes this fight on short notice and has a tough task ahead of him in only his second outing for the UFC. Morales has a slight two inch reach advantage but that’s about all that he out trumps Almeida with. Almeida should pick him off at will and ultimately get the stoppage.
Almeida by knockout.
CLAUDIA GADELHA vs. CORTNEY CASEY
After failing for a second time to beat women’s Strawweight champion Joanna Jedrzejczyk, Claudia Gadelha will now look to start another run for the title at the expense of Cortney Casey. Gadelha is a strong grappler who is ever dangerous in the clinch; she manhandles her opponents and grinds away at them. Cortney Casey has gone 2-2 with the UFC since joining just over a year ago, “Cast Iron” is a relentless fighter who has never been knocked out, and she has won her last two fights in the first round. This fight is a big step up in competition for Casey and I think Gadelha is better in every department and will demonstrate it on Saturday night.
Gadelha by decision.
THALES LEITES vs. KRZYSZTOF JOTKO
Krzysztof Jotko has never looked out of place since joining the UFC, going 5-1 in that time; his only blemish being a submission loss to Magnus Cedenblad. This fight will be Jotko’s toughest fight to date and will certainly test the credentials that he has. After back to back losses to Bisping and Mousasi, Thales Leites bounced back with an impressive submission victory over Chris Camozzi. Leites is exceptional once the fight goes to the mat; he has 15 submission wins to his name and I think this is how this fight will play out. Jotko has great takedown defence but I can’t see him been able to defend Leites for the duration of the fight. Once the fight gets to the ground it’s only a matter of time before Leites locks in a submission.
Leites by submission.
WARLLEY ALVES vs. KAMARU USMAN
Warlley Alves went 10-0 before Bryan Barberena put a halt to his streak at UFC 198. Alves is great at overpowering his opponents and trapping them on the mat, from there he locks in a choke or picks them apart. Kamaru Usman is a winner of the Ultimate Fighter and a rangy striker who has a knack of knocking out opponents. This will be a great test of both fighters potential and if Usman can keep the fight standing he could use his reach advantage to keep Alves at bay. If Alves can’t get the takedowns he sometimes look slightly lost so I’m going with Usman to do enough to get the win.
Usman by decision.
SERGIO MORAES vs. ZAK OTTOW
Zak Ottow surprised everyone when he beat Josh Burkman on short notice last time out. “The Barbarian” will be looking to show that it wasn’t a fluke when he takes on seasoned grappler Sergio Moraes. Brazilian Moraes is a decorated Jiu-Jitsu fighter and has an MMA record of 10-2. Moraes is a handful on the ground and he should have the ability to keep Ottow there, Ottow is now slouch on the mat either but his skills will be seriously tested on Saturday. Moraes could get a stoppage win but I think this goes the distance with Ottow doing himself no shame but Moraes shading the judge’s decision.
Moraes by decision.
Best of the Rest.
Cezar Ferreira vs. Jack Hermansson
Hermansson to win.
Marcos Rogerio de Lima vs. Gadzhimurad Antigulov
De Lima to win.
Johnny Eduardo vs. Manvel Gamburyan
Eduardo to win.
Luis Henrique vs. Christian Colombo
Henrique to win.
Pedro Munhoz vs. Justin Scoggins
Scoggins to win.
Francimar Barroso vs. Darren Stewart
Barroso to win.
Bet of the Day.
The adventurous bet: all 12 predictions in an accumulator is about 93/1.
The inbetweener bet: A double chance of KO and points on Bader, Almeida and Gadelha is 2/1.
The conservative bet: Almeida by KO is 13/10.
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